Reuters: The funeral procession of the late Iranian leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was more than a national farewell. The sea of mourners in Tehran sent a message to the United States and Israel that their efforts to bring about the collapse of the Islamic Republic had failed.

It is evident that this massive and remarkable funeral procession has created perceptual deterrence for Iran’s adversaries. It conveys the message that their assumption that the Islamic Republic was on the verge of collapse has proven to be incorrect.

A vehicle carrying coffins of Iran’s late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his family members, makes its way as people attend a funeral procession for Khamenei, who was killed on February 28 in Israeli and U.S. airstrikes, in Tehran, Iran July 6, 2026. Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/ Handout via REUTERS Purchase Licensing Rights

For Tehran – which denies seeking a nuclear bomb – uranium can wait, but consolidating its position on Hormuz cannot, said ​Alan Eyre, a former U.S. diplomat with expertise on Iran.

“Iran is perfectly happy to play for time and just drag negotiations out,” Eyre said. “It wants control of Hormuz and is holding talks to institutionalise that control.”

That could mean embedding its influence ‌through transit ⁠arrangements, coordination mechanisms or charges for services along the corridor that carries a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, while Persian Gulf wait to see whether Washington can or is able to reverse the new reality.

Tehran believes U.S. President – constrained by domestic politics and wary of another confrontation before midterm elections to Congress in November – is under more pressure to secure a deal than Iran is to make concessions.

“The Iranians know that President Trump wants to get out; he wants to move on,” Eyre said. “They know they can squeeze him because time is on their side.”

Aaron David Miller, a former U.S. Middle East negotiator, said Washington’s military campaign had failed ​to break Iran’s leverage, leaving U.S. diplomacy with a ​flawed ceasefire whose implementation has become a battleground ⁠in its own right.

Tehran, he said, has little reason to engage seriously on its nuclear programme until it is confident the new reality around Hormuz has been accepted and meaningful progress made on unlocking billions of dollars in frozen assets held abroad.

“The 60-day clock was always a fantasy,” Miller said. “The Iranians are not going to move ​to the nuclear file until they’re relatively confident they’ve achieved this new status quo. They want to make sure that Trump understands, and that the world ​understands, that there’s no going back ⁠to February 27.”

IRAN WON’T GIVE UP HORMUZ

Iran is exploiting what Miller calls the key reality of the post-war order – neither U.S. military power nor the threat of a U.S. naval blockade fundamentally altered its position on the Strait of Hormuz.

“They’re not going to give it up,” he said.

Ebtesam Al-Ketbi, president of the Emirates Policy Center, said that, by halting the war without resolving the issues that caused it, Washington may have helped elevate Hormuz from being a pressure ⁠point into a ​lasting source of leverage for Tehran.

Gulf officials worry that by showing Iran’s ability to shape events around the strait, the war created ​an advantage that Tehran will be reluctant to surrender even in exchange for sanctions relief or progress on the nuclear file.

“They are twisting the arms of the Americans and everybody,” Al Ketbi said. “Now that they have found this Hormuz treasure, they will not leave it.”

Washington ​is likely to have to accept the reopening of the strait under conditions largely dictated by Tehran, analysts say.

“No one’s going to win, but Iran will lose less than the United States will,” Eyre said.